Decision Analysis & Modeling Nmims Solved Assignments 2017

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Decision Analysis & Modeling
1. Even though there are many auto rickshaw manufactures, two companies Bajaj and M&M, control the
market in Maharashtra. If both the companies make similar design changes in their auto rickshaws in a
year, their market shares will remain unchanged. Similarly if neither of them goes for any changes, then
also their market shares will remain constant. But if incase one company goes for a design change and
other doesn’t then the market shares are going to change, the payoff matrix for increase or decrease in
market share under different possible scenarios is given below:
Bajaj

M&M
No changes Small changes Major changes
No changes 0 -4 -10
Small changes 3 0 5
Major changes 8 1 0

Find the value of the game. What changes should M&M consider if this information is only available to
it? (10 Marks)
2. Using suitable examples discuss the difference between simple linear regression and logistic
regression. (10 Marks)
3. To assemble a “Drone”, Mukesh has laid out the seven major activities involved. The activities are
labeled as A through G in the following table, which also shows their various completion times (in Hrs)
and immediate predecessor of each activity.
ACTIVITY MOST  OPTIMISTIC

TIME MOST LIKELY TIME MOST PESSIMISTIC

TIME

IMMEDIATE
PREDECESSOR

A 1 2 3  –
B 2 3 4  –
C 4 5 6 A
D 8 9 10 B
E 2 5 8 C,D
F 4 5 6 D

G 1 2 3 E,F
a. Determine the expected time and variance for each activity. (5 Marks)
b. Determine the critical path for the project. What is the probability of completing the project in less
than 25 hours?

 

 

 

 

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